: Probability Men's Division I

            UPDATED: 05-28-26 09:23 PDT

The odds presented here represent the probability that a team will be champion of its (college)
division or (high school) state. A Monte Carlo technique was employed over many simulated
seasonal schedules to produce the results. The seeding during the season was based on the
laxpower power ratings. At the end of the season, the seedings were changed to the actual seedings,
if available.


Rnk Team Wins Losses Probability (%)
1 Princeton 17 2 16.00
2 Notre Dame 13 3 10.00
3 Richmond 14 2 8.80
4 Syracuse 13 6 8.40
5 Duke 11 5 5.60
6 Penn State 10 6 5.60
7 Cornell 11 5 4.40
8 Maryland 7 6 4.40
9 Ohio State 10 4 4.40
10 Johns Hopkins 10 6 3.20
11 Army 13 4 2.80
12 Georgetown 11 5 2.80
13 Loyola 10 6 2.80
14 North Carolina 13 5 2.80
15 Virginia 10 7 2.80
16 St Josephs 7 6 2.40
17 Yale 9 6 2.40
18 Jacksonville 11 6 2.00
19 Pennsylvania 7 6 2.00
20 Boston Univ 8 6 1.20
21 Navy 7 7 1.20
22 Towson 11 4 0.00
23 Utah 9 5 0.00
24 Albany 11 6 0.00
25 Denver 6 8 0.00
26 Harvard 9 5 0.00
27 Lehigh 8 8 0.00
28 Michigan 5 9 0.00
29 Rutgers 8 7 0.00
30 Air Force 7 8 0.00
31 Bellarmine 5 11 0.00
32 Binghamton 2 11 0.00
33 Brown 6 7 0.00
34 Bryant 7 6 0.00
35 Bucknell 8 7 0.00
36 Canisius 3 11 0.00
37 Cleveland State 6 8 0.00
38 Colgate 6 9 0.00
39 Dartmouth 4 9 0.00
40 Delaware 5 8 0.00
41 Detroit Mercy 3 10 0.00
42 Drexel 9 6 0.00
43 Fairfield 4 10 0.00
44 High Point 6 8 0.00
45 Hobart 3 10 0.00
46 Hofstra 4 10 0.00
47 Holy Cross 6 8 0.00
48 Iona 2 15 0.00
49 Lafayette 5 9 0.00
50 Le Moyne 4 11 0.00
51 LIU 11 4 0.00
52 Manhattan 4 10 0.00
53 Marist 12 5 0.00
54 Marquette 6 7 0.00
55 Massachusetts 10 6 0.00
56 UMassLowell 2 10 0.00
57 Mercer 6 8 0.00
58 Mercyhurst 2 12 0.00
59 Merrimack 7 9 0.00
60 Monmouth 6 7 0.00
61 Mt St Marys 3 10 0.00
62 NJIT 4 9 0.00
63 Providence 8 9 0.00
64 Queens 4 9 0.00
65 Quinnipiac 5 10 0.00
66 Robert Morris 14 4 0.00
67 Sacred Heart 11 4 0.00
68 Siena 12 5 0.00
69 St Bonnies 4 10 0.00
70 St Johns 2 12 0.00
71 Stony Brook 10 6 0.00
72 UMBC 6 7 0.00
73 Vermont 7 7 0.00
74 Villanova 6 8 0.00
75 VMI 7 7 0.00
76 Wagner 5 8 0.00