Probability College Football Playoff     ---    UPDATED: 10-13-25 17:53 PDT

The odds presented here represent the probability that a team will be champion of its (college)
division or (high school) state. A Monte Carlo technique was employed over many simulated
seasonal schedules to produce the results. The seeding during the season was based on the
laxpower power ratings. At the end of the season, the seedings were changed to the actual seedings,
if available.


Rnk Team Wins Losses Probability (%)
1 Oregon 13 0 14.80
2 Ohio St 10 2 10.70
3 Notre Dame 11 1 6.60
4 Indiana 11 1 5.90
5 Penn St 11 2 5.80
6 Boise State 12 1 5.20
7 Georgia 11 2 4.40
8 Texas 11 2 4.20
9 Clemson 10 3 3.50
10 Arizona St 11 2 3.10
11 Ole Miss 9 3 2.90
12 Tennessee 10 2 2.60
13 So Carolina 9 3 2.50
14 Alabama 9 3 2.40
15 SMU 11 2 1.90
16 Texas A&M 8 4 1.90
17 Miami 10 2 1.80
18 Illinois 9 3 1.80
19 Syracuse 9 3 1.70
20 Iowa St 10 3 1.70
21 USC 6 6 1.60
22 BYU 10 2 1.50
23 Colorado 9 3 1.40
24 Minnesota 7 5 1.40
25 Baylor 8 4 1.30
26 Duke 9 3 1.20
27 Michigan 7 5 1.20
28 LSU 8 4 1.20
29 Louisville 8 4 1.10
30 UNLV 10 3 0.00
31 Army 11 1 0.00
32 Iowa 8 4 0.00
33 Missouri 9 3 0.00
34 Boston Col ` 7 5 0.00
35 California 6 6 0.00
36 Florida St 2 10 0.00
37 Georgia Tech 7 5 0.00
38 UNC 6 6 0.00
39 NC St 6 6 0.00
40 Pittsburgh 7 5 0.00
41 Stanford 3 9 0.00
42 Virginia 5 7 0.00
43 Va Tech 6 6 0.00
44 Wake Forest 4 8 0.00
45 Charlotte 5 7 0.00
46 Ea Carolina 7 5 0.00
47 Fla Atlantic 3 9 0.00
48 Memphis 10 2 0.00
49 Navy 8 3 0.00
50 No Texas 6 6 0.00
51 Rice 4 8 0.00
52 So Florida 6 6 0.00
53 Temple 3 9 0.00
54 Tulane 9 4 0.00
55 Tulsa 3 9 0.00
56 UAB 3 9 0.00
57 UTSA 6 6 0.00
58 Arizona 4 8 0.00
59 Cincinnati 5 7 0.00
60 Houston 4 8 0.00
61 Kansas 5 7 0.00
62 Kansas St 8 4 0.00
63 Oklahoma St 3 9 0.00
64 TCU 8 4 0.00
65 Texas Tech 8 4 0.00
66 UCF 4 8 0.00
67 Utah 5 7 0.00
68 We Virginia 6 6 0.00
69 Maryland 4 8 0.00
70 Michigan St 5 7 0.00
71 Nebraska 6 6 0.00
72 Northwestern 4 8 0.00
73 Purdue 1 11 0.00
74 Rutgers 7 5 0.00
75 UCLA 5 7 0.00
76 Washington 6 6 0.00
77 Wisconsin 5 7 0.00
78 Florida Intl 4 8 0.00
79 Jacksonv. St 8 5 0.00
80 Kennesaw St 2 10 0.00
81 Liberty 8 3 0.00
82 La Tech 5 7 0.00
83 Middle Tenn 3 9 0.00
84 NM St 3 9 0.00
85 SHouston St 9 3 0.00
86 UTEP 4 8 0.00
87 We Kentucky 8 4 0.00
88 UMass 2 10 0.00
89 UConn 8 4 0.00
90 Akron 4 8 0.00
91 Ball St 3 9 0.00
92 Bowl. Green 7 5 0.00
93 Buffalo 8 4 0.00
94 Cen Michigan 4 8 0.00
95 Ea Michigan 5 7 0.00
96 Kent State 0 12 0.00
97 MiamiOH 8 5 0.00
98 No Illinois 7 5 0.00
99 Ohio 10 3 0.00
100 Toledo 7 5 0.00
101 We Michigan 6 6 0.00
102 Air Force 5 7 0.00
103 Colorado St 8 4 0.00
104 Fresno St 6 6 0.00
105 Hawaii 5 7 0.00
106 Nevada 3 10 0.00
107 New Mexico 5 7 0.00
108 San Diego St 3 9 0.00
109 San Jose St 7 5 0.00
110 Utah St 4 8 0.00
111 Wyoming 3 9 0.00
112 Oregon St 5 7 0.00
113 Wash St 8 4 0.00
114 Arkansas 6 6 0.00
115 Auburn 5 7 0.00
116 Florida 7 5 0.00
117 Kentucky 4 8 0.00
118 Miss St 2 10 0.00
119 Oklahoma 6 6 0.00
120 Vanderbilt 6 6 0.00
121 App St 5 6 0.00
122 Arkansas State 7 5 0.00
123 Coastal Car 6 6 0.00
124 Georgia So 8 4 0.00
125 Georgia St 3 9 0.00
126 J Madison 8 4 0.00
127 Louisiana 10 3 0.00
128 Marshall 10 3 0.00
129 Old Dominion 5 7 0.00
130 So Miss 1 11 0.00
131 So Alabama 6 6 0.00
132 Texas State 7 5 0.00
133 Troy 4 8 0.00
134 La-Monroe 5 7 0.00