Explanation Of Safe3Step Method

The SAFE model for ranking teams focuses on simplicity, accuracy, forecasting potential,
and elegance. It aims to derive team rankings in a structured and insightful manner,
using three key steps: Goal Differential, Winning or Losing, and Head-to-Head. Here's a
breakdown of each step:

Step 01: Goal Differential

• Objective: Evaluate teams based on their game scores to create "goal offsets."

• Goal: The idea is that, if two teams (A and B) played each other on a neutral field, the difference
their power ratings should be reflected
the average margin of difference in goals between them.

• What this means: The power of a team is determined by how many goals they score relative
the goals scored against them. If Team A consistently scores more goals than Team B, Team A
l have a higher goal differential. This reflects Team A’s overall strength, which is used to estimate
relative power between any two teams.

Step 02: Winning or Losing

• Objective: Adjust rankings based on match results, taking into account:

* The strength of the opponent * The location of the game (home, away, or neutral field)
* Whether the team won or lost.

• What this means: A team’s performance is evaluated not just by the outcome of the game
but also by the strength of the opponent and the venue. For example, winning at home might
be weighted differently than winning away, and defeating a stronger team will yield more points
than defeating a weaker one.

• Goal: This step adjusts each team's power rating based on the context of the match and how
it reflects their strength relative to the opponent.

Step 03: Head-to-Head

• Objective: After rankings are established from Steps 1 and 2, the final step involves
evaluating head-to-head results to fine-tune the rankings.

• Criteria: Head-to-head evaluations occur under these conditions:

o Two teams are adjacent in points. o The difference in points between the teams falls within
a specific percentage threshold.

o The teams have played each other.

• What this means: If two teams are very close in points and have played each other, their
head-to-head result can influence their rankings. If the lower-ranked team defeated the
higher-ranked one, the lower-ranked team moves up in the ranking. If the teams split
their games, there is no change in their relative positions.

• Re-evaluation: After adjusting rankings based on head-to-head results, the model
re-evaluates and checks if the rankings need further adjustments. This process continues
iteratively until the rankings converge, meaning no more changes occur.

Summary

The SAFE model creates a ranking system that: • Simplifies the evaluation process by
focusing on goal differentials and match results.

• Ensures no compromise in fairness (q) by considering the strength of opponents and
match locations.

• Allows for forecasting a team's future performance based on the adjusted rankings.

• Maintains elegance by making the process surprisingly simple yet effective and
constructive in determining team strengths and rankings.

This stepwise approach ensures that rankings are fair, context-sensitive, and based on objective
metrics, while also considering the competitive nature of teams through direct matchups.