2021 NCAA Women's Division I
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 17 4 3 1 2 3 1 2 6 20.00 2 Boston C Atlantic Coast 18 3 4 3 3 2 4 3 9 7.00 3 UNC Atlantic Coast 20 1 1 9 1 1 10 1 12 34.00 4 Northwestern Big Ten 15 1 2 13 4 5 24 4 33 37.00 5 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 11 7 6 5 8 4 20 10 34 1.00 6 Florida American 18 3 5 39 6 8 22 5 35 1.00 7 Stony Brook America East 16 3 7 22 7 6 25 6 37 0.10 8 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 13 2 44 52 11 14 14 11 39 0.10 9 Temple American 13 6 37 24 14 18 7 16 41 0.10 10 Denver Big East 16 2 18 33 5 11 32 7 50 0.10 11 Drexel Colonial 13 3 9 20 16 7 28 15 50 0.10 12 Penn Ivy League 1 0 38 69 21 31 3 18 52 0.10 13 Duke Atlantic Coast 11 8 8 14 17 15 6 32 53 0.10 14 Umass Atlantic 10 15 3 12 51 15 12 36 14 62 0.10 15 Stanford Pacific 12 11 1 10 26 10 9 45 9 63 0.10 16 Vanderbilt American 12 7 43 31 39 22 8 34 64 0.10 17 Albany America East 11 7 33 37 33 26 9 30 65 0.10 18 Virginia Atlantic Coast 9 9 16 12 32 23 5 37 65 0.10 19 Mt St Marys Northeast 13 3 52 95 20 21 21 25 67 0.10 20 JMU Colonial 12 5 17 21 19 16 37 17 70 0.10 21 Lehigh Patriot League 9 4 36 49 35 25 17 33 75 0.10 22 Louisville Atlantic Coast 5 11 25 2 45 28 2 46 76 0.10 23 Hofstra Colonial 6 7 34 17 44 13 19 45 77 0.10 24 Loyola Patriot League 11 3 15 25 12 10 61 12 83 0.10 25 ASU Pacific 12 10 6 20 30 43 34 23 40 97 0.10 26 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 12 2 19 54 9 17 72 8 97 0.10 27 Maryland Big Ten 10 7 11 8 29 37 13 47 97 0.10 28 Elon Colonial 9 2 31 73 18 19 49 31 99 0.10 29 Niagara Metro Atlantic 8 4 46 58 46 24 34 41 99 0.10 30 Siena Metro Atlantic 11 3 39 64 36 20 54 28 102 0.10 31 Towson Colonial 9 9 24 19 59 29 38 48 115 0.10 32 St Josephs Atlantic 10 10 7 32 40 54 30 33 53 116 0.10 33 High Point Big South 10 8 41 61 60 38 18 68 124 0.10 34 Colorado Pacific 12 8 7 26 18 55 27 50 50 127 0.10 35 Rutgers Big Ten 7 9 21 4 42 47 11 69 127 0.10 36 Uconn Big East 12 7 30 38 49 33 56 42 131 0.10 37 UMBC America East 6 6 57 55 50 50 40 43 133 0.10 38 Liberty Atlantic Sun 10 9 51 53 66 49 15 70 134 0.10 39 Davidson Atlantic 10 11 4 35 62 34 32 69 35 136 0.10 40 UC Davis MPSF 12 4 29 71 37 51 53 36 140 0.10 41 VA Tech Atlantic Coast 4 11 27 15 71 44 26 75 145 0.10 42 Cincinnati American 7 10 55 44 82 52 16 78 146 0.10 43 Richmond Atlantic 10 10 2 48 89 22 41 79 27 147 0.10 44 Cst Carolina Southern 10 7 53 79 72 42 43 66 151 0.10 45 Navy Patriot League 7 4 45 66 41 36 77 39 152 0.10 46 JHU Big Ten 8 7 13 10 38 48 42 63 153 0.10 47 LIU Northeast 9 5 96 110 53 56 47 51 154 0.10 48 Robert Morris MAC 14 3 67 99 13 39 102 13 154 0.10 49 Furman Southern 12 4 50 93 40 46 74 38 158 0.10 50 USC Pacific 12 9 7 28 23 47 40 66 54 160 0.10 51 Monmouth NJ Metro Atlantic 8 5 42 74 57 54 55 52 161 0.10 52 E Carolina American 4 12 62 28 105 57 12 104 173 0.10 53 Wagner Northeast 10 5 75 104 51 35 94 44 173 0.10 54 Villanova Big East 6 11 66 32 101 55 35 87 177 0.10 55 Vermont America East 6 6 73 76 61 58 62 59 179 0.10 56 Marist Metro Atlantic 3 5 60 48 67 43 81 58 182 0.10 57 Mercer Southern 7 8 70 70 74 45 68 71 184 0.10 58 Army Patriot League 5 4 47 75 48 53 83 49 185 0.10 59 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 5 7 59 63 81 64 48 73 185 0.10 60 VCU Atlantic 10 7 9 69 83 95 65 31 96 192 0.10 61 W&M Colonial 3 9 77 42 96 66 30 99 195 0.10 62 Duquesne Atlantic 10 4 5 61 72 56 62 80 57 199 0.10 63 Georgetown Big East 6 10 40 29 87 59 63 79 201 0.10 64 La Salle Atlantic 10 5 9 56 46 88 71 51 84 206 0.10 65 SDSU MPSF 5 9 72 35 94 73 39 95 207 0.10 66 Boston U Patriot League 4 6 64 56 62 68 82 60 210 0.10 67 Campbell Big South 8 7 74 91 76 67 71 72 210 0.10 68 PSU Big Ten 4 9 14 7 70 74 46 92 212 0.10 69 Oregon Pacific 12 3 8 68 36 89 82 41 90 213 0.10 70 Bryant Northeast 7 6 85 106 68 60 93 61 214 0.10 71 Canisius Metro Atlantic 2 8 63 45 97 63 58 94 215 0.10 72 Marquette Big East 6 8 49 60 85 69 76 76 221 0.10 73 Central MI MAC 8 6 76 97 65 61 96 65 222 0.10 74 OSU Big Ten 4 9 23 6 63 72 59 91 222 0.10 75 Bucknell Patriot League 3 6 90 67 69 76 86 62 224 0.10 76 Stetson Atlantic Sun 1 8 93 50 90 75 67 86 228 0.10 77 Colgate Patriot League 5 5 54 86 58 70 105 56 231 0.10 78 American Patriot League 1 7 86 68 84 83 70 80 233 0.10 79 ODU American 3 14 94 65 116 91 27 116 234 0.10 80 Binghamton America East 3 5 87 87 64 86 85 64 235 0.10 81 UNH America East 4 7 89 90 77 92 73 74 239 0.10 82 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 3 9 71 59 103 85 57 98 240 0.10 83 California Pacific 12 2 16 65 27 119 94 29 119 242 0.10 84 St Francis Northeast 4 8 99 107 93 84 65 93 242 0.10 85 GWU Atlantic 10 5 7 78 80 78 77 87 81 245 0.10 86 Radford Big South 6 12 92 82 112 80 52 113 245 0.10 87 Michigan Big Ten 3 9 22 11 75 87 60 100 247 0.10 88 Fresno State MPSF 2 12 81 43 113 93 44 114 251 0.10 89 Holy Cross Patriot League 2 4 79 85 52 95 101 55 251 0.10 90 Winthrop Big South 7 8 80 94 91 81 84 88 253 0.10 91 Delaware Colonial 1 5 83 77 73 100 89 67 256 0.10 92 Kennesaw St Atlantic Sun 4 10 88 84 100 79 75 103 257 0.10 93 Sacred Heart Northeast 6 7 98 109 79 78 104 77 259 0.10 94 Umass-L America East 4 8 84 88 83 88 99 83 270 0.10 95 Butler Big East 1 11 95 34 110 99 64 110 273 0.10 96 Akron MAC 7 8 103 112 86 96 103 85 284 0.10 97 St Bonny Atlantic 10 2 10 102 47 106 89 90 106 285 0.10 98 Lafayette Patriot League 0 6 100 78 80 108 97 82 287 0.10 99 Kent State MAC 5 10 104 103 108 98 88 108 294 0.10 100 Detroit Mercy MAC 2 8 109 108 98 102 98 97 297 0.10 101 Youngstown St MAC 2 7 108 111 92 101 107 89 297 0.10 102 Central CT Northeast 0 13 111 101 117 104 78 117 299 0.10 103 GMU Atlantic 10 1 14 91 41 118 90 91 118 299 0.10 104 GardWebb Big South 4 9 97 100 99 97 108 101 306 0.10 105 Iona Metro Atlantic 0 11 82 57 114 105 92 111 308 0.10 106 Merrimack Northeast 2 11 105 102 111 103 95 112 310 0.10 107 Hartford America East 0 9 106 81 102 109 100 102 311 0.10 108 Wofford Southern 2 9 107 96 104 107 106 105 318 0.10 109 Delaware St Southern 1 9 112 98 107 112 110 107 329 0.10 110 Longwood Big South 3 12 101 92 115 106 109 115 330 0.10 111 Presbyterian Big South 4 10 110 105 109 110 111 109 330 0.10 112 Dartmouth Ivy League 0 1 58 16 26 115 115 22 0 0.10 113 Brown Ivy League 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 114 Columbia Ivy League 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 115 Cornell Ivy League 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 116 Harvard Ivy League 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 117 Howard Atlantic Sun 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 118 Princeton Ivy League 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 119 Yale Ivy League 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10