2004 NCAA Women's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Middlebury NESCAC 19 0 2 1 1 1 1 1 3 47.00 2 College of New J Independent 18 1 3 3 2 2 3 2 7 27.00 3 Amherst NESCAC 16 3 4 2 3 3 2 5 10 18.00 4 Salisbury Capital 16 3 5 8 4 4 4 3 11 7.00 5 Gettysburg Centennial 18 3 6 15 5 5 7 4 16 0.10 6 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 12 5 11 4 11 7 5 11 23 0.10 7 William Smith Upstate 16 2 8 21 8 6 13 7 26 0.10 8 Drew Middle Atlanti 16 4 14 41 13 14 11 10 35 0.10 9 Union Upstate 15 5 15 17 15 12 9 15 36 0.10 10 Plymouth State Little East 17 1 12 62 6 8 26 6 40 0.10 11 Nazareth Empire Eight 14 4 31 38 19 16 17 14 47 0.10 12 Wheaton NEWMAC 15 3 13 36 7 17 25 9 51 0.10 13 Williams NESCAC 10 5 10 6 10 13 14 26 53 1.00 14 Bowdoin NESCAC 11 7 18 10 22 22 8 32 62 0.10 15 Ithaca Empire Eight 12 5 32 29 35 27 12 23 62 0.10 16 Mary Washington Capital 9 7 21 9 30 23 10 29 62 0.10 17 Hamilton Upstate 11 4 22 22 24 19 23 22 64 0.10 18 Cortland SUNYAC 13 6 24 34 32 18 15 33 66 0.10 19 Ursinus Centennial 9 5 35 27 25 20 29 19 68 0.10 20 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 10 9 33 14 55 15 6 49 70 0.10 21 Rowan Independent 8 6 25 13 49 10 20 41 71 0.10 22 Stevens Knickerbocker 15 3 28 74 14 24 31 16 71 0.10 23 McDaniel Centennial 13 4 36 48 16 21 43 12 76 0.10 24 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 15 4 16 47 12 28 35 13 76 0.10 25 Goucher Capital 12 5 30 32 18 25 27 27 79 0.10 26 Scranton Middle Atlanti 14 5 27 60 29 29 28 24 81 0.10 27 Colorado College Independent 13 3 1 20 9 9 73 8 90 0.10 28 Springfield NEWMAC 11 5 41 56 31 36 24 30 90 0.10 29 Skidmore Upstate 10 6 7 30 46 26 33 35 94 0.10 30 Cabrini Penn. (PAC) 14 5 53 102 23 35 44 17 96 0.10 31 Messiah Middle Atlanti 11 7 43 43 58 34 18 51 103 0.10 32 Washington Colle Centennial 9 8 50 28 56 33 21 55 109 0.10 33 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 9 6 19 12 26 37 34 40 111 0.10 34 Wooster North Coast 13 4 9 59 21 11 87 20 118 0.10 35 Tufts NESCAC 7 7 26 7 36 38 32 52 122 0.10 36 Eastern Penn. (PAC) 13 4 63 117 33 40 52 31 123 0.10 37 Montclair State Knickerbocker 11 3 45 103 28 32 66 28 126 0.10 38 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 9 6 56 53 54 45 36 46 127 0.10 39 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 15 3 23 79 20 41 63 25 129 0.10 40 Keene State Little East 13 5 37 85 47 31 61 38 130 0.10 41 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 5 8 38 5 42 39 22 70 131 0.10 42 Frostburg State Independent 10 5 20 42 34 30 70 34 134 0.10 43 Colby NESCAC 7 9 47 11 51 47 19 74 140 0.10 44 Geneseo SUNYAC 10 5 39 69 52 46 58 43 147 0.10 45 Eastern Connecti Little East 9 8 62 54 85 44 30 76 150 0.10 46 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 9 10 65 31 81 50 16 86 152 0.10 47 St. Lawrence Upstate 8 6 44 37 59 51 54 48 153 0.10 48 Denison North Coast 7 6 69 24 60 48 50 57 155 0.10 49 Claremont-Mudd-S Independent 10 4 46 57 27 42 104 18 164 0.10 50 Oneonta SUNYAC 10 7 49 58 68 52 48 68 168 0.10 51 Roanoke Old Dominion 9 6 34 82 50 53 65 54 172 0.10 52 New England Coll Comm. Coast 10 7 80 94 72 58 45 72 175 0.10 53 Catholic (DC) Capital 6 8 66 25 76 57 39 81 177 0.10 54 Gordon Comm. Coast 8 6 82 95 66 60 60 61 181 0.10 55 Western New Engl NEWLA 14 4 57 119 37 65 83 36 184 0.10 56 Rensselaer Upstate 6 8 51 35 82 62 46 83 191 0.10 57 Buffalo State SUNYAC 10 4 67 97 40 63 94 39 196 0.10 58 Babson NEWMAC 10 8 58 70 71 64 59 75 198 0.10 59 Kean Knickerbocker 8 5 55 106 45 49 105 44 198 0.10 60 Widener Middle Atlanti 10 5 40 73 38 43 118 37 198 0.10 61 Curry Comm. Coast 14 5 73 124 44 67 90 47 204 0.10 62 Dickinson Centennial 6 9 77 39 94 61 55 90 206 0.10 63 Haverford Centennial 7 8 75 77 86 69 57 80 206 0.10 64 Allegheny North Coast 8 6 52 86 57 56 98 53 207 0.10 65 Brockport SUNYAC 10 6 60 98 65 70 84 59 213 0.10 66 Muhlenberg Centennial 5 9 84 44 98 68 56 89 213 0.10 67 Puget Sound Independent 5 3 78 114 41 59 109 45 213 0.10 68 Wittenberg North Coast 3 8 76 19 90 78 51 84 213 0.10 69 Swarthmore Centennial 8 8 81 91 83 73 64 79 216 0.10 70 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 8 8 29 23 43 54 96 71 221 0.10 71 Rochester Upstate 4 10 71 26 117 74 37 112 223 0.10 72 Susquehanna Middle Atlanti 6 10 79 65 107 75 47 102 224 0.10 73 Bates NESCAC 4 10 72 16 80 80 49 103 232 0.10 74 Greensboro USA South Atl. 9 8 42 83 77 66 85 82 233 0.10 75 Massachusetts-Da Little East 10 7 54 111 67 55 126 60 241 0.10 76 Rosemont Penn. (PAC) 10 7 101 136 79 83 82 78 243 0.10 77 Kenyon North Coast 7 6 68 89 75 77 101 66 244 0.10 78 Bridgewater Stat NEWLA 9 5 48 129 39 71 132 42 245 0.10 79 Christopher Newp USA South Atl. 6 9 88 51 100 79 67 99 245 0.10 80 Marymount Capital 4 10 61 45 88 76 74 95 245 0.10 81 Villa Julie Independent 1 11 112 18 128 81 38 129 248 0.10 82 Bryn Mawr Centennial 8 9 99 108 92 92 71 87 250 0.10 83 Notre Dame (MD) Atlantic Women 9 6 70 109 63 72 120 58 250 0.10 84 Fredonia SUNYAC 6 8 86 84 96 91 75 92 258 0.10 85 Linfield Independent 3 3 100 115 48 85 124 50 259 0.10 86 Western Connecti Little East 4 11 106 71 130 86 42 131 259 0.10 87 King's Middle Atlanti 8 6 97 112 69 88 107 67 262 0.10 88 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 5 8 111 99 102 84 78 100 262 0.10 89 Oswego SUNYAC 3 12 92 46 143 87 40 137 264 0.10 90 Gwynedd-Mercy Penn. (PAC) 10 7 109 135 78 90 99 77 266 0.10 91 Endicott Comm. Coast 8 10 87 104 113 89 62 116 267 0.10 92 Wellesley NEWMAC 4 8 85 40 84 94 81 97 272 0.10 93 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 7 8 90 96 91 99 80 94 273 0.10 94 Manhattanville Knickerbocker 2 12 107 55 142 96 41 143 280 0.10 95 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 7 6 64 80 70 97 123 64 284 0.10 96 Hartwick Empire Eight 4 12 96 52 141 93 53 139 285 0.10 97 Neumann Penn. (PAC) 7 7 108 133 87 95 106 85 286 0.10 98 Oberlin North Coast 2 10 120 50 114 108 68 111 287 0.10 99 Redlands Independent 4 6 94 49 74 98 121 69 288 0.10 100 Methodist USA South Atl. 7 6 17 132 53 100 139 56 295 0.10 101 Lynchburg Old Dominion 6 10 89 75 116 101 79 123 303 0.10 102 Elmira Empire Eight 7 10 93 105 119 104 86 117 307 0.10 103 Rhode Island Col Little East 7 8 115 128 95 113 108 88 309 0.10 104 Centenary Knickerbocker 2 6 129 107 73 109 129 73 311 0.10 105 Vassar Upstate 3 11 104 61 133 114 69 128 311 0.10 106 Clarkson Upstate 3 9 95 66 108 107 100 105 312 0.10 107 Shenandoah USA South Atl. 7 6 83 121 62 105 144 63 312 0.10 108 Lycoming Middle Atlanti 5 10 105 101 126 103 88 122 313 0.10 109 Elizabethtown Middle Atlanti 6 10 102 72 109 82 127 109 318 0.10 110 MIT NEWMAC 3 8 91 76 101 116 112 93 321 0.10 111 Alvernia Penn. (PAC) 6 10 131 137 110 106 103 113 322 0.10 112 Southern Maine Little East 3 11 119 81 135 110 77 135 322 0.10 113 Arcadia Penn. (PAC) 5 9 121 134 111 118 97 114 329 0.10 114 Trinity (DC) Atlantic Women 6 5 125 145 64 121 143 65 329 0.10 115 Worcester State NEWLA 6 8 127 127 99 117 114 98 329 0.10 116 Wesley Penn. (PAC) 5 12 124 122 144 115 72 144 331 0.10 117 FDU-Florham Middle Atlanti 5 11 74 78 124 102 111 121 334 0.10 118 Smith NEWMAC 2 8 113 64 89 120 117 101 338 0.10 119 Guilford Old Dominion 4 9 59 116 93 111 137 91 339 0.10 120 Alfred Empire Eight 3 10 110 93 127 119 95 127 341 0.10 121 Dallas Independent 0 8 138 33 106 128 110 108 346 0.10 122 Utica Empire Eight 6 10 103 110 122 122 113 119 354 0.10 123 Lancaster Bible Independent 3 6 141 149 61 144 149 62 355 0.10 124 Colby-Sawyer Comm. Coast 4 10 98 120 115 112 134 110 356 0.10 125 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 0 13 118 63 149 132 76 149 357 0.10 126 Potsdam SUNYAC 3 12 117 100 146 123 89 146 358 0.10 127 Bridgewater Old Dominion 1 11 123 67 140 127 93 142 362 0.10 128 Moravian Middle Atlanti 2 12 122 90 145 126 91 145 362 0.10 129 Univ of New Engl Comm. Coast 3 9 126 113 118 125 122 118 365 0.10 130 Rochester Inst o Empire Eight 2 11 114 87 138 124 102 140 366 0.10 131 Wilkes Middle Atlanti 1 12 133 88 147 129 92 147 368 0.10 132 Lasell NEWLA 2 9 136 125 120 130 128 120 378 0.10 133 Hollins Old Dominion 0 9 145 68 125 134 119 126 379 0.10 134 Elms NEWLA 4 8 139 143 104 139 140 106 385 0.10 135 Hood Atlantic Women 4 9 137 148 105 137 142 107 386 0.10 136 Whittier Independent 1 9 116 92 123 131 131 125 387 0.10 137 Cazenovia Independent 4 8 130 138 103 140 145 104 389 0.10 138 Cedar Crest Penn. (PAC) 3 11 134 142 137 136 116 138 390 0.10 139 Misericordia Penn. (PAC) 2 10 135 139 132 133 125 133 391 0.10 140 Medaille Independent 1 7 142 144 97 148 148 96 392 0.10 141 Nichols Comm. Coast 1 9 144 126 121 135 133 124 392 0.10 142 Castleton State NEWLA 1 10 147 123 134 141 130 134 405 0.10 143 Immaculata Penn. (PAC) 0 12 148 131 148 142 115 148 405 0.10 144 Emerson NEWLA 0 8 149 141 112 146 146 115 407 0.10 145 Ferrum USA South Atl. 3 10 132 118 131 138 138 132 408 0.10 146 Averett USA South Atl. 0 14 143 130 136 145 135 136 416 0.10 147 Wells Atlantic Women 3 10 140 147 129 147 147 130 424 0.10 148 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 2 12 128 140 139 143 141 141 425 0.10 149 Chestnut Hill Atlantic Women 0 14 146 146 150 149 136 150 435 0.10 150 Bryn Athyn Independent 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.10