2016 NCAA Men's Division III
CHAMPIONSHIP PROBABILITIES
PR = Power Ratings RPI = Ratings Percentage Index SOS = Strength of Schedule QWF = Quality Wins Factor SOS & QWF SOS & QWFbased on PR based on RPI Probabilities (%) Rnk Team Name Conference W L PR SOS QWF RPI SOS QWF Tot Champ %
1 Salisbury Capital 23 1 1 13 1 1 1 1 3 37.00 2 Gettysburg Centennial 17 3 7 11 7 2 2 3 7 2.00 3 Tufts NESCAC 20 3 3 3 2 3 5 2 10 13.00 4 Denison North Coast 18 2 11 47 6 5 7 4 16 2.00 5 York Capital 18 4 17 20 8 6 3 7 16 1.00 6 Ithaca Empire 8 20 2 4 49 4 9 10 5 24 12.00 7 RIT Liberty 18 2 2 12 3 4 17 6 27 17.00 8 Stevenson MAC-Commonwlth 15 5 19 23 11 16 8 10 34 1.00 9 St. Lawrence Liberty 18 3 9 28 5 8 19 8 35 2.00 10 Amherst NESCAC 14 5 5 2 9 12 11 16 39 2.00 11 Ursinus Centennial 14 3 20 21 19 10 20 11 41 0.10 12 Cortland SUNYAC 14 6 18 18 21 7 12 25 44 0.10 13 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 13 4 8 53 22 11 16 18 45 4.00 14 Cabrini CSAC 15 5 6 41 16 24 13 12 49 0.10 15 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 16 4 27 37 29 13 21 15 49 0.10 16 Roanoke Old Dominion 13 5 25 39 33 14 15 22 51 2.00 17 Frostburg State Capital 15 4 30 46 17 23 22 9 54 0.10 18 Western New Engl CCC 15 4 26 31 13 15 30 13 58 0.10 19 Lynchburg Old Dominion 12 9 23 16 61 21 4 34 59 0.10 20 Rensselaer Liberty 13 5 15 17 10 28 18 14 60 0.10 21 Montclair State Skyline 13 7 29 27 37 18 9 35 62 0.10 22 Middlebury NESCAC 12 7 14 1 12 20 6 38 64 0.10 23 Franklin & Marsh Centennial 12 5 34 22 32 19 29 21 69 0.10 24 Nazareth Empire 8 12 6 28 30 31 32 14 24 70 0.10 25 Christopher Newp Capital 13 5 36 45 35 29 27 20 76 0.10 26 Aurora Midwest 17 3 52 124 20 26 36 17 79 0.10 27 Eastern MAC-Freedom 14 6 48 66 43 33 23 32 88 0.10 28 Bowdoin NESCAC 12 5 12 5 15 22 32 36 90 0.10 29 Stevens Empire 8 14 5 16 42 24 37 28 27 92 1.00 30 Sewanee Southern 12 4 58 99 39 17 56 30 103 0.10 31 Bates NESCAC 11 4 10 6 14 25 55 29 109 0.10 32 Hampden-Sydney Old Dominion 13 6 41 51 44 39 43 40 122 0.10 33 Elizabethtown Landmark 12 6 42 50 69 30 47 46 123 0.10 34 Keene State Little East 14 4 31 63 18 34 66 23 123 0.10 35 Kenyon North Coast 11 4 43 77 28 40 58 26 124 0.10 36 John Carroll OAC 12 6 91 107 60 27 34 64 125 0.10 37 Morrisville Stat NEAC 13 3 72 131 23 41 65 19 125 0.10 38 Union Liberty 9 7 35 15 53 43 31 51 125 0.10 39 Williams NESCAC 10 7 22 8 26 42 26 57 125 1.00 40 Dickinson Centennial 8 7 21 19 72 46 24 59 129 0.10 41 Albion MIAA 13 5 88 121 50 36 46 52 134 0.10 42 Swarthmore Centennial 12 6 55 44 48 48 48 39 135 0.10 43 Wesleyan NESCAC 10 5 13 10 25 38 62 44 144 3.00 44 Baldwin Wallace OAC 14 3 81 158 27 35 92 28 155 0.10 45 Wooster North Coast 10 7 73 74 77 49 41 68 158 0.10 46 Brockport SUNYAC 12 4 46 73 34 45 87 31 163 0.10 47 Catholic Landmark 11 7 54 60 79 54 35 81 170 0.10 48 Stockton Skyline 15 5 49 88 46 47 80 43 170 0.10 49 Wittenberg North Coast 8 7 70 80 93 57 33 80 170 0.10 50 Centre Southern 11 5 96 132 47 53 75 45 173 0.10 51 Otterbein OAC 11 7 95 103 86 44 39 90 173 0.10 52 Washington Colle Centennial 7 8 44 24 105 60 37 79 176 0.10 53 Messiah MAC-Commonwlth 11 7 57 57 70 59 49 70 178 0.10 54 Potsdam SUNYAC 10 6 68 59 66 51 78 49 178 0.10 55 Springfield NEWMAC 12 8 33 40 63 50 50 78 178 0.10 56 Concordia-Wiscon Midwest 12 5 98 159 56 61 64 58 183 0.10 57 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 8 8 40 33 87 52 38 93 183 0.10 58 Susquehanna Landmark 12 5 56 85 58 62 71 56 189 0.10 59 Colorado College Independent 12 5 63 76 36 31 123 37 191 0.10 60 Alfred Empire 8 10 5 62 95 42 55 84 53 192 0.10 61 Birmingham-South Southern 12 5 125 147 54 63 83 48 194 0.10 62 Merchant Marine Landmark 10 4 94 110 45 58 90 47 195 0.10 63 Endicott CCC 9 9 37 26 91 56 44 98 198 0.10 64 Scranton Landmark 11 6 60 72 75 68 68 67 203 0.10 65 Illinois Wesleya CCIW 13 5 74 141 52 65 88 55 208 0.10 66 Connecticut Coll NESCAC 7 9 24 9 64 64 45 106 215 0.10 67 Haverford Centennial 7 8 38 29 101 67 52 99 218 0.10 68 Mary Washington Capital 7 10 51 34 140 77 25 118 220 0.10 69 Vassar Liberty 8 8 59 35 89 78 60 96 234 0.10 70 St. John Fisher Empire 8 8 9 92 54 97 85 40 112 237 0.10 71 Salve Regina CCC 11 7 99 89 88 71 93 77 241 0.10 72 Keuka NEAC 12 3 90 178 30 69 141 33 243 0.10 73 Babson NEWMAC 9 8 47 52 98 70 61 113 244 0.10 74 Capital OAC 12 6 89 157 73 74 98 73 245 0.10 75 Alma MIAA 13 5 131 170 51 75 119 54 248 0.10 76 Farmingdale Stat Skyline 12 5 87 127 65 73 112 63 248 0.10 77 Kean Skyline 11 7 86 100 95 72 89 89 250 0.10 78 Mount Union OAC 9 5 139 145 71 66 117 71 254 0.10 79 Emmanuel Great Northeas 11 9 120 109 112 80 67 117 264 0.10 80 Berry Southern 8 9 115 118 128 92 59 116 267 0.10 81 Virginia Wesleya Old Dominion 10 7 65 70 104 83 96 88 267 0.10 82 Rhodes Southern 11 5 126 163 62 89 121 61 271 0.10 83 Coast Guard NEWMAC 10 6 102 130 80 88 107 82 277 0.10 84 Guilford Old Dominion 8 9 80 61 139 86 72 120 278 0.10 85 New England Coll North Atlantic 13 7 127 189 78 94 109 76 279 0.10 86 U. of New Englan CCC 11 8 78 86 107 82 95 102 279 0.10 87 Carthage CCIW 10 10 111 129 144 93 51 137 281 0.10 88 Benedictine Midwest 11 5 144 165 59 84 136 62 282 0.10 89 Trinity NESCAC 5 10 32 4 111 90 54 142 286 0.10 90 Widener MAC-Commonwlth 7 8 50 55 116 99 86 103 288 0.10 91 Clark NEWMAC 10 5 71 101 55 91 142 65 298 0.10 92 Oswego SUNYAC 6 9 106 69 125 98 76 125 299 0.10 93 MIT NEWMAC 12 5 66 98 40 79 180 42 301 0.10 94 St. Mary's Capital 4 9 76 36 138 101 77 130 308 0.10 95 Hamilton NESCAC 4 11 39 7 120 102 42 167 311 0.10 96 Albright MAC-Commonwlth 7 10 69 62 154 110 69 136 315 0.10 97 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 10 6 109 156 81 107 139 75 321 0.10 98 Eastern Connecti Little East 10 7 101 105 100 96 129 97 322 0.10 99 Clarkson Liberty 4 11 61 32 158 112 57 154 323 0.10 100 Lasell Great Northeas 12 5 137 174 57 97 166 60 323 0.10 101 Trine MIAA 8 6 136 173 92 95 137 91 323 0.10 102 Roger Williams CCC 11 8 53 64 96 87 128 110 325 0.10 103 Gwynedd Mercy CSAC 10 5 85 111 41 108 153 66 327 0.10 104 Maritime Skyline 7 7 132 133 114 106 114 108 328 0.10 105 Augustana CCIW 11 7 110 144 67 76 183 72 331 0.10 106 Transylvania Ohio River 10 6 157 193 82 109 140 83 332 0.10 107 Oneonta SUNYAC 5 9 77 48 118 114 91 129 334 0.10 108 Regis NECC 13 4 176 213 38 104 190 41 335 0.10 109 Goucher Landmark 9 6 75 104 84 100 155 86 341 0.10 110 Whittier Independent 8 6 83 102 90 81 165 95 341 0.10 111 Lebanon Valley MAC-Commonwlth 11 8 97 90 113 105 138 107 350 0.10 112 Colby NESCAC 3 12 45 14 155 115 53 185 353 0.10 113 Oberlin North Coast 5 10 100 97 156 120 81 152 353 0.10 114 Marymount Capital 5 9 107 58 131 124 106 124 354 0.10 115 Geneseo SUNYAC 5 8 79 75 117 123 118 115 356 0.10 116 Skidmore Liberty 5 11 67 38 142 119 82 156 357 0.10 117 UMass Boston Little East 12 6 134 161 76 113 170 74 357 0.10 118 Southern Virgini Capital 6 10 108 65 153 116 100 143 359 0.10 119 UMass Dartmouth Little East 8 10 129 108 166 103 97 160 360 0.10 120 Bridgewater Old Dominion 7 9 117 82 143 129 105 128 362 0.10 121 Bryn Athyn NEAC 9 5 143 188 68 121 174 69 364 0.10 122 Castleton North Atlantic 11 7 148 196 83 126 157 84 367 0.10 123 Olivet MIAA 6 10 121 142 173 118 79 171 368 0.10 124 Utica Empire 8 4 11 112 68 168 133 70 178 381 0.10 125 Johnson & Wales Great Northeas 11 10 153 175 151 117 115 151 383 0.10 126 Cazenovia NEAC 8 7 162 183 108 127 152 105 384 0.10 127 Curry CCC 10 7 128 154 99 125 169 92 386 0.10 128 Marywood CSAC 6 11 104 83 152 148 63 181 392 0.10 129 Misericordia MAC-Freedom 10 7 84 119 102 130 162 100 392 0.10 130 McDaniel Centennial 3 12 64 25 196 138 74 182 394 0.10 131 Centenary CSAC 9 6 113 123 74 132 179 85 396 0.10 132 DeSales MAC-Freedom 6 9 82 93 150 134 113 149 396 0.10 133 DePauw North Coast 6 9 146 120 124 145 130 122 397 0.10 134 Norwich Great Northeas 9 9 151 164 137 111 147 141 399 0.10 135 Wheaton NEWMAC 7 9 105 87 149 128 125 148 401 0.10 136 Plymouth State Little East 6 10 119 128 174 122 108 172 402 0.10 137 Wilmington OAC 6 8 185 180 127 139 134 132 405 0.10 138 Muhlenberg Centennial 3 13 93 43 210 131 73 202 406 0.10 139 Rivier Great Northeas 10 7 145 194 103 135 173 101 409 0.10 140 Randolph Old Dominion 8 9 116 113 141 140 149 126 415 0.10 141 Southwestern Independent 7 9 171 166 148 137 135 147 419 0.10 142 Ferrum SEILC 10 9 118 122 129 136 151 133 420 0.10 143 Southern Maine Little East 8 7 161 172 110 142 168 111 421 0.10 144 Elmira Empire 8 4 9 175 106 133 152 126 144 422 0.10 145 Thiel Ohio River 10 4 172 219 49 151 225 50 426 0.10 146 Washington & Jef Ohio River 7 11 169 171 186 143 104 179 426 0.10 147 Beloit Midwest 5 10 164 146 175 149 111 173 433 0.10 148 Hanover Ohio River 7 9 178 195 146 146 144 145 435 0.10 149 Elmhurst CCIW 6 11 149 153 188 150 99 188 437 0.10 150 Mount Ida Great Northeas 9 9 141 176 135 141 158 139 438 0.10 151 Lycoming MAC-Commonwlth 4 11 133 67 182 155 103 184 442 0.10 152 Ohio Northern OAC 8 7 163 204 109 156 177 109 442 0.10 153 Fairleigh Dickin MAC-Freedom 6 9 123 92 145 153 143 150 446 0.10 154 Wesley Capital 5 11 152 81 179 158 124 164 446 0.10 155 Hartwick Empire 8 4 10 130 84 159 154 132 162 448 0.10 156 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 4 13 103 56 216 144 102 209 455 0.10 157 Wentworth CCC 4 13 122 94 217 147 101 213 461 0.10 158 Adrian MIAA 2 13 183 114 218 161 85 217 463 0.10 159 Delaware Valley MAC-Freedom 8 8 114 135 119 163 184 119 466 0.10 160 Saint Vincent Ohio River 7 7 182 216 115 167 189 114 470 0.10 161 Hope MIAA 9 7 155 210 106 170 197 104 471 0.10 162 Drew Landmark 2 13 124 78 215 160 94 218 472 0.10 163 Methodist SEILC 9 9 140 162 134 159 178 138 475 0.10 164 SUNY Canton Independent 8 6 191 208 94 173 212 94 479 0.10 165 Salem State Little East 5 11 165 139 190 165 127 191 483 0.10 166 Nichols CCC 5 11 138 125 189 168 131 187 486 0.10 167 Hilbert NEAC 5 8 173 184 130 172 181 134 487 0.10 168 Daniel Webster NECC 7 8 194 217 121 171 199 121 491 0.10 169 Mitchell NECC 5 8 174 201 132 169 188 135 492 0.10 170 Huntingdon SEILC 8 10 167 181 147 164 187 146 497 0.10 171 Bard Liberty 4 11 166 91 162 185 148 165 498 0.10 172 Moravian Independent 10 6 160 185 85 190 224 87 501 0.10 173 Wabash North Coast 5 10 188 167 157 186 164 153 503 0.10 174 Immaculata CSAC 6 10 154 140 160 179 156 170 505 0.10 175 Hiram North Coast 2 12 202 116 202 188 122 201 511 0.10 176 Muskingum OAC 2 12 195 169 211 181 120 210 511 0.10 177 Arcadia MAC-Commonwlth 4 12 150 79 200 174 133 205 512 0.10 178 Western Connecti Little East 2 13 187 112 219 178 116 220 514 0.10 179 Cornell College Midwest 3 10 181 149 163 166 192 157 515 0.10 180 Gordon CCC 1 14 158 71 224 183 110 224 517 0.10 181 Millsaps Southern 4 10 190 187 183 182 161 176 519 0.10 182 Shenandoah Old Dominion 4 12 142 96 207 176 146 197 519 0.10 183 Calvin MIAA 6 10 186 199 169 187 167 166 520 0.10 184 Hendrix Southern 6 11 147 152 170 157 207 163 527 0.10 185 Lyndon State North Atlantic 7 8 211 222 122 193 211 123 527 0.10 186 Husson North Atlantic 6 10 201 220 172 184 176 169 529 0.10 187 Becker NECC 6 12 192 190 201 177 159 203 539 0.10 188 Mass. Maritime NEWMAC 5 12 168 160 204 180 154 206 540 0.10 189 SUNY Poly NEAC 6 10 179 168 178 162 204 177 543 0.10 190 MSoE Midwest 5 8 184 206 136 195 215 140 550 0.10 191 St. Joseph's (ME Great Northeas 5 11 193 202 191 189 171 192 552 0.10 192 Kalamazoo MIAA 4 9 198 203 161 198 200 155 553 0.10 193 Wheelock NECC 6 8 218 223 126 205 219 131 555 0.10 194 Greensboro SEILC 5 11 159 143 193 175 193 194 562 0.10 195 King's MAC-Freedom 3 11 135 115 195 192 175 196 563 0.10 196 Hood MAC-Commonwlth 5 10 156 138 171 194 202 168 564 0.10 197 Manhattanville MAC-Freedom 4 12 170 136 205 197 160 207 564 0.10 198 Rosemont CSAC 5 11 177 134 185 191 186 190 567 0.10 199 Westminster (PA) Ohio River 2 7 213 221 123 219 226 127 572 0.10 200 Houghton Empire 8 3 13 204 155 209 199 163 211 573 0.10 201 Emerson NEWMAC 0 13 214 151 222 203 150 222 575 0.10 202 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 1 14 206 148 225 206 145 225 576 0.10 203 Wells NEAC 3 11 203 179 197 196 182 198 576 0.10 204 Maine Maritime North Atlantic 5 10 209 215 177 200 203 175 578 0.10 205 Albertus Magnus Great Northeas 4 10 197 209 180 201 198 180 579 0.10 206 La Roche Independent 3 10 200 200 184 204 195 183 582 0.10 207 Franciscan Independent 3 9 210 218 164 214 218 158 590 0.10 208 Dubuque CCIW 2 10 208 192 167 210 221 161 592 0.10 209 Cobleskill NEAC 3 11 205 198 194 208 196 195 599 0.10 210 Concordia-Chicag Midwest 1 13 223 182 220 207 172 221 600 0.10 211 Thomas North Atlantic 3 9 222 227 165 222 223 159 604 0.10 212 Alfred State Independent 5 11 212 191 192 202 214 193 609 0.10 213 Keystone CSAC 1 10 196 126 181 212 208 189 609 0.10 214 Bethany Ohio River 3 12 215 211 208 211 194 208 613 0.10 215 Johnson State North Atlantic 2 10 224 224 187 218 216 186 620 0.10 216 Carroll CCIW 0 9 226 205 176 226 222 174 622 0.10 217 Alvernia MAC-Commonwlth 3 14 180 137 223 209 191 223 623 0.10 218 Piedmont SEILC 1 11 199 177 203 213 206 204 623 0.10 219 Wilkes MAC-Freedom 0 15 189 117 227 216 185 227 628 0.10 220 Green Mountain North Atlantic 2 11 221 225 199 221 217 200 638 0.10 221 Oglethorpe Southern 1 14 217 186 221 215 205 219 639 0.10 222 Neumann CSAC 1 12 207 150 206 220 209 212 641 0.10 223 Anna Maria Great Northeas 1 15 216 197 226 217 201 226 644 0.10 224 Dallas Independent 3 14 220 214 198 223 227 199 649 0.10 225 Medaille NEAC 0 12 219 207 214 224 210 216 650 0.10 226 Defiance Ohio River 0 12 227 212 212 225 213 214 652 0.10 227 Maine Farmington North Atlantic 0 12 225 226 213 227 220 215 662 0.10